R²
0.89
MAE
0.31pp
RMSE
0.42pp
Observed vs Predicted
Trailing 40 weeks
Residual Errors
Predicted − Observed (pp)
Feature Importance
Permutation importance — Ridge Regression
ILI_lag1
42%
rolling_3w
18%
ILI_lag2
12%
sin_week
9%
cos_week
7%
ILI_lag3
6%
temperature
4%
precipitation
2%
Metric Definitions
- R²: share of variance the model captures — closer to 1 is better.
- MAE: average absolute weekly prediction error in percentage points.
- RMSE: root mean squared error — penalizes large misses more heavily.
- Residuals: per-week deviation; clustering above/below zero reveals bias.